Post-Election Fluctuations in the Dollar Continue

Dollar/TL started the day just below the 32 level this morning. The dollar/TL exchange rate, which rose to 32.40 before the local elections, dropped to 31.9 after the elections.
While Dollar/TL is trading below the 32 level again after the local elections, inflation data and the Economy Coordination Board (ECB) meeting will be watched in the market today.

TL gained value against the dollar in the first two trading days after the local elections. Dollar/TL completed the last trading day before the local elections at 32.3950. The exchange rate dropped to 31.9 on Monday. Dollar/TL started the day by testing below the 32 level this morning. TL lost approximately 9 percent of its value against the dollar in the first quarter.

The increasing need for TL by locals before the Eid holiday and the fact that some of those who switched to foreign currency before the election turned to TL in the same period are the main reasons for the rare downward pressure on dollar/TL. TL deposit return is another factor that reduces the interest in foreign currency.

Traders point out that the movement in the foreign exchange market starts from the Grand Bazaar. Reports on Turkish markets published after the local elections also contain mostly positive opinions about the upcoming period.

Moreover, according to bankers' calculations, net reserves increased by approximately 1 billion dollars last week, thus the significant loss in the CBRT reserves, which approached 25 billion dollars, stopped in the week following the interest rate increase.


The agenda of the ECB meeting, which will start at 1600 today, will be an evaluation of the general situation regarding the economy. March Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands out on the domestic agenda.
CPI is expected to increase by 3.5% monthly, with the contribution of the increase in food and services prices, and annual CPI is expected to increase to 69.1% in March.

According to the Reuters survey, inflation is expected to be at 43.75% by the end of 2024, well above the Central Bank's (CBRT) 36% forecast.


Following President Tayyip Erdoğan's victory in the 2023 general elections, CHP achieved great success by receiving a higher than expected vote rate in the local elections held over the weekend.

The political effects of the election continue to be followed in the markets. In this context, the AKP Central Executive Board meeting, chaired by Erdoğan, where the election evaluation was made, was held yesterday.

While AKP Spokesperson Ömer Çelik stated yesterday that there was no logic in calls for early elections, he stated that March 31 will be a "turning point" in terms of the policies that the AKP will produce in the coming period.
According to the information provided by AKP sources, Erdoğan stated in yesterday's meeting that inflation pressure and its consequences were felt "deeply" on March 31, that preventive measures were not sufficient, and that many segments of society, especially retirees, suffered a loss of welfare.

According to sources, at the meeting Erdoğan said that everyone in the AKP administration, including himself, could not escape the responsibility of the election results.

It is closely followed what strategy Erdoğan will implement from now on, as Ekrem İmamoğlu, who is seen as Erdoğan's biggest rival, won Istanbul with a strong vote difference and Mansur Yavaş won Ankara again with a large margin.

Devlet Bahçeli, Chairman of MHP, a member of the People's Alliance, also acknowledged that the decline in purchasing power and the problems experienced by various segments of society, especially retirees, in daily life had an impact on the election result.

In his assessment to Reuters at the beginning of the week, AKP Deputy Chairman of Foreign Relations Harun Armağan said, "We are doing whatever we need to do for the current economic program and we have a very talented and experienced economic team led by Erdoğan. They already have a very tight and disciplined program. The challenges today are "It's livable, but we know it will bring very good results in the long run," he said.

Although Erdoğan emphasized that "the message has been received" about his party's sharp loss of votes in the local elections, which he described as a loss of altitude, he did not give any signals about how he would implement the steps he wanted to take in the economy and the judiciary. The main emphasis of analysts was the question of how to fill the "empty pot" that motivates voters' voting behavior.